Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
