It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
